There’s still more than a month until the winner of this year’s Mercury Music Prize is announced. The award is traditionally meant to find the best British album of the last year, but usually only really succeeds in making small groups extraordinarily famous and so confused that they go off the rails and never make a decent album ever again.
And that couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of people than The Kaiser Chiefs, who are still favourite to take the prize. Our good chums at Oddjack disagree – they reckon that Bloc Party are the real favourites – but we’re not so sure.
Betting on the Mercury Music Prize is riskier than a bet on something like Big Brother – the people betting for that are the same people that text the show with votes, so there’s always a big indication on which way the result will go.
Here, you’re betting on the way you think a panel of ‘experts’ will decide on the best album. The public don’t get a say, so it’s all speculation. Betfair only reflects the public’s opinion. But the risk means there could be greater rewards.
Here are the odds for the Mercury Music Prize as they stand for this week, brought to you with Betfair.com…
Polar Bear – Held On The Tips Of Fingers: This
collection of snappy hardcore punk free-post-jazz numbers is getting
less and less popular as the weeks go on. But maybe the judges love it.
If they do, someone’s going to get rich. Current odds – 54/1
Seth Lakeman – Kitty Jay: The other distant outsider
is a man singing a bunch of songs about Dartmoor. Maybe Seth will turn
into the UK version of Sufjan Stevens, devoting an album to every tract
of uncultivated upland in the country. Woohoo! Less popular than last
week. Current odds – 41/1
Hard-Fi – Stars Of CCTV: Here’s our prediction – as
far as the shortlist goes, 2005 is the year of the traditional guitar
band. And the judges will be so split with their favourite
run-of-the-mill guitar bands, something un-guitar will sneak through
and snatch it. Hard-Fi are basically a slightly grown-up guitar
boyband. Their odds have slipped a lot since last week. Current odds –
18/1
Maximo Park – A Certain Trigger: The other vaguely
anonymous guitar band on the shortlist, Maximo Park got in the NME
mainly, as far as we can tell, because one of them has a Terry Wogan
haircut. And their name makes us think that they should sound like Limp
Bizkit, which they don’t. They’re OK, but their odds are slipping, too.
Current odds – 17/1
Coldplay – X&Y: The biggest-selling album of the
year by the biggest band in the world. And it won’t win. Why? Because
everyone is sick of it. If the prize was chosen after the judges
listened to all the albums at top volume while standing on a windswept
aircraft carrier in the middle of the North Sea while feeling slightly
self-consciously sad, Coldplay would walk it. That’s probably not going
to happen, though. Much less popular than last week. Current odds – 15/1
KT Tunstall – Eye To The Telescope: Where did all the
Coors fans go? They bought KT Tunstall’s album. The woman and her songs
are blander than a weekend eating soggy bread in Hastings, and only
liked by people who find Dido a touch too hardcore. Her odds are also
on the slide. Current odds – 15/1
The Go! Team – Thunder Lightning Strike: A lot of the
shortlist so far has been full of either faintly miserable ploddy
claptrap or empty bombast – The Go! Team are the antidote to that.
Their colourful, DIY, A.D.D sound assault sounds like Pavement playing
Northern Soul covers to a roomful of toddlers. They have the most
life-affirming album on the shortlist, and their odds are holding firm.
Current odds – 29/2
Antony And The Johnsons – I Am A Bird Now: It doesn’t
matter that he’s a good singer. It doesn’t matter that he also looks
like a fat teenage female babysitting goth. And we’re even willing to
overlook the woman with the antlers. But they’re not actually a British
group. They’re from New York. They boast about being from New York.
We’re confused. Current odds – 23/2
M.I.A – Arular: M.I.A’s odds are gaining momentum.
She’s one of the freshest, most original acts on the shortlist. If
listening to most of the albums on the list is like being prodded with
a fish, listening to Arular is like being wired up the national grid in
comparison. She stands a real chance. Current odds – 8/1
Bloc Party – Silent Alarm: Despite being touted around
by a few other folk as the favourites to win the prize, we still have
our reservations. We think the Bloc Party vote will be split with
another guitar band’s vote. They’re OK, in a kind of "I’m 14, I’ll put
a poster of them on my wall" way. And we’ll admit that we like the
video with the pig-monsters. Their odds have shortened, but only
slightly. Current odds – 11/3
The Magic Numbers – The Magic Numbers: Coming in out
of nowhere as second-favourites are the big fat hairy hippies The Magic
Numbers. They’re the credible alternative to Tunstall on the shortlist.
They’re sunny, inoffensive and, although they don’t inspire slavish
devotion, we’re yet to find anyone that doesn’t like them. Current odds
– 16/5
Kaiser Chiefs – Employment: There’s a very close three
horse race at the top of the shortlist, and the teenybopper’s
favourites The Kaiser Chiefs are still tipped to win. They’re
re-releasing I Predict A Riot, though. Who knows why – maybe they’ve
already run out of half-decent songs. Current odds – 14/5
The award will be announced on September 6th – so there’s still plenty of time to do the research on the bands and make a more educated guess. Even better, why not buy a few of the albums? There are some corkers in there. And you can search for the cheapest albums online at Kelkoo.co.uk. Have fun betting, and good luck.
Related stories:
The hecklerspray Betfair.com Tutorial
[story by Stuart Heritage]