Eurovision betting long shot - hedging bets on Ukraine

Ukraine are hosting the Eurovision Final 2005 but they are massive outsiders in the betting. So we have taken a punt and backed Ukraine at odds of between 230 and 250. Go Ukraine!

This is our long shot bet. We’re doing it to try and hedge our bets, if the betting goes in our favour, but mainly as a reason for writing this tutorial article…

Actually, I haven’t even heard the Ukrainian song, but the BBC suggests that their entry is:

a) none other than president Viktor Yushchenko’s campaign anthem, and…

b) …performed by a "virtually unknown" band installed at the last minute.

Stranger things have happened, baby.

So yes, we’ve gone and backed Ukraine, in the name of morally dubious education (yours, in the dark arts of Betfair) and - of course - the lure of greed.

We’ve put on £14 at average odds of 242. This gives us a potential return of around £3380.

Now, we’re going to LAY a bet. We’re offering somebody else odds of 10, and we’re doing it now, in case we’re not on the money tomorrow night.

Now we have to wait for the event, and more importantly, the voting.

The Eurovision Odds Showdown - The Final

For the odds to fall so dramatically from 242 to 10 we need Ukraine to do really well early on in the voting. Unlikely, if the high odds are indicative of talent, but fingers crossed.

After all, they are the host country (it’s in the lovely Kiev). Political upheaval. Democracy. The ‘well done’ vote. Hecklers of Europe Unite! Vote for Ukraine!

Of course this will only happen if Ukraine perform a miracle, judging by the odds, but we’re backing them to do better than expected. For the hell of it.

And if that turns out to be much better, and they are given points early on, the odds will dramatically fall in our favour.

If all goes well, we’ll have a profit of:

UKRAINE WIN:

£3,400 - £900 = £2,500

UKRAINE LOSE, HAVING DONE WELL EARLY ON:

£100 (winnings from the bet we offered at 10) - £14 (original bet)

NB If the odds fall to 12 nobody will take the 10. They need to drop to 10 or less for our odds to be an attractive proposition to a another punter. Vote for Ukraine!

Hedge To Win No Matter What The Result

Using the above example, and if it comes off, the best bit is that we win on ANY result if this happens.

The ideal is to turn your Betfair screen green (red indicates ‘exposure’, ie how much you will lose).

So, reader, Betfair is worth checking out for the ability to win on all results by hedging your bets. You trade positions. Buy high odds and sell low ones. In that order.

It really isn’t difficult at all, even if you have never used Betfair before, which is a no brainer (even if you just want to have a little bet and not bother with hedging your bets - 20% better odds, remember?).

The tricky bit is in knowing which outsiders are in with a chance.

But you’ll know that already, and certainly by tomorrow night, right?

More seriously, we’re going for Vanilla Ninja of Switzerland and Norway’s crazy entry. More tomorrow on that.

***hecklerspray readers can sign up with Betfair now for Eurovision betting and next week’s Big Brother - odds coming soon***

Join our Big Brother Betting Club by emailing bigbrotherbetclub@gmail.com.

Good luck, Eurovision punters!